**Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the Alaska 2026 gubernatorial race at 78.5% implied probability, well ahead of Bernadette Wilson at 19.5%, with all other candidates below 2%.** The open primary produced a fragmented field, with Kreiss-Tomkins taking the top spot at 22.5% after Democrat Tom Begich withdrew and endorsed him, consolidating moderate and Democratic support. Three Republicans advanced—Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor—creating vote-splitting risks under ranked-choice voting. Recent AARP and other polls show Kreiss-Tomkins ahead in first preferences and prevailing in RCV simulations by roughly 52-55% to 45-48%, aided by stronger fundraising, independent voter appeal, and broad campaign outreach. The Cook Political Report rates the contest a toss-up, noting GOP concerns that supporters may not fully rank Republican options. Election Day is November 3.