The regime's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early 2026 strikes, combined with IRGC cohesion and a surge in nationalist sentiment that has suppressed broader dissent, underpins trader expectations that collapse remains unlikely before 2027. Sustained U.S. sanctions, naval blockade, and economic isolation have inflicted severe inflation and currency strain without triggering coordinated nationwide revolt or security force defections. Recent negotiations and pauses in major combat operations ahead of U.S. midterms further signal containment rather than imminent breakdown. While internal protests and leadership transition frictions persist, historical patterns of regime adaptation and fears of post-collapse chaos among segments of the population limit upside risks. Late escalations or sudden IRGC fractures remain the primary variables that could shift these odds.