Despite sustained U.S. and Israeli military strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and severe economic pressures including rial depreciation and sanctions, Iran's leadership has maintained continuity through Revolutionary Guards consolidation and accelerated succession arrangements. External attacks have fueled nationalist sentiment that has blurred factional lines and reduced the risk of mass uprising, while security forces continue executions and arrests to contain protests. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no imminent collapse, and the absence of organized opposition capable of converting discontent into sustained regime change supports trader consensus on the low probability of fall before 2027.