**Current low heat stress in the Main Hawaiian Islands underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability of “No.”** As of the most recent NOAA Coral Reef Watch virtual station data (around September 20, 2026), the region sits at Bleaching Warning with a Degree Heating Week accumulation of just 0.1°C-weeks, a HotSpot of 0.8°C, and sea surface temperatures of 27.8°C (0.8°C above the maximum monthly mean). Alert Level 1 requires sustained HotSpots ≥1°C and accumulated DHW of 4–8, thresholds not approached despite an intensifying El Niño warming much of the equatorial Pacific. With only weeks remaining until December 31 and no rapid escalation evident in satellite observations, traders view significant additional stress accumulation as unlikely before year-end.