Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate Mexico City lows near 12–13°C on October 16 amid an approaching frontal system, increased cloud cover, and widespread rain that limits overnight radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Model consensus shows modest cooling from prior days but lacks signals for extreme drops below 10°C, consistent with typical mid-October climatology. Trader emphasis on the 7°C-or-below bin at 46% likely reflects uncertainty over frontal timing, potential model underestimation of clear-sky cooling windows, or localized urban effects, with upcoming updated runs from regional agencies expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.