**Ongoing regional conflicts, including the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran through 2026, have stalled momentum for new Abraham Accords signatories.** Saudi Arabia, long viewed as the pivotal candidate, maintains its precondition of a credible path to Palestinian statehood, a stance reiterated amid U.S. efforts to link a civilian nuclear deal to normalization. Recent assessments, such as the Council for a Secure America's October 2026 report, rank Kuwait highest among prospects, followed by Lebanon and Syria, yet these face substantial domestic, security, and diplomatic hurdles with uncertain timelines. Kazakhstan's 2025 accession and limited interest from others like Oman or Qatar have not generated additional near-term commitments. With roughly 2.5 months remaining before 2027, these structural barriers underpin the market's strong "No" consensus.