The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s Reply due November 2027 and Israel’s Rejoinder not until May 2029. Recent orders have addressed Israel’s jurisdictional objections and extended deadlines multiple times, while interventions by the United States and others have added procedural layers. Colombia’s September 2026 withdrawal from the proceedings and a 2025 ceasefire have not accelerated merits hearings or produced any final ruling on state responsibility. ICC arrest warrants and related proceedings address different charges and move on similarly extended timelines. These structural delays and the absence of imminent oral arguments or judgments explain the strong trader consensus against a genocide finding by the market’s 2027 cutoff.