Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hamas that has held in name for over a year, yet Israeli forces have steadily expanded control beyond the agreed Yellow Line through incremental advances, new military outposts, and targeted airstrikes on Hamas targets. As of early October 2026, reports indicate Israeli control of roughly 63-65 percent of Gaza territory, accompanied by displacement orders and engineering activity near Gaza City and Deir al-Balah. Officials including Defense Minister Israel Katz have signaled readiness for a broader offensive to compel disarmament if the U.S.-backed transition framework stalls, while Hamas retains weapons and governance in remaining areas. Scheduled diplomatic milestones around the ceasefire anniversary and stalled Board of Peace implementation continue to shape assessments of whether a major ground operation will be ordered before key deadlines.