Traders assign a 94.8% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, reflecting the narrow two-week window and absence of finalized agreements. Recent assessments rank Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria as leading prospects due to shifting security ties and U.S.-brokered frameworks, yet Israeli officials have projected any Kuwaiti move within four to six months from September statements. Kazakhstan’s announced accession remains pending a signing ceremony likely scheduled after October. Saudi discussions have shown limited revival amid Houthi threats, but normalization continues to hinge on unresolved Palestinian issues and regional elections. With no verified signing imminent before the deadline, market pricing aligns with the extended timelines typical of such diplomatic processes.