**Traders assign an 87% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords by the end of 2026, reflecting stalled momentum for major candidates amid persistent regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, long viewed as the pivotal potential signatory, has seen normalization prospects cool following the 2026 Iran War and ongoing Houthi threats, with Riyadh continuing to condition any deal on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to accession. Recent reports note quiet security discussions but no breakthrough toward formal ties. Smaller prospects such as Kuwait (ranked highest in an October 2026 Council for a Secure America assessment), Lebanon, and Syria show incremental diplomatic signals, including polling support in some cases and comments from Israeli officials about possible movement within six months, yet structural obstacles like Hezbollah disarmament, territorial disputes, and domestic politics make near-term action unlikely. Oman, Qatar, and others face even greater hurdles tied to Iranian influence or policy positions. With roughly 2.5 months remaining before 2027 and no active negotiations or announcements pointing to a signing in late 2026, the current pricing aligns with limited near-term catalysts for expansion beyond existing partners like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and the 2025 addition of Kazakhstan.