Elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Iran-related supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, have kept WTI crude near $101 per barrel and Brent above $116 as of late October 2026, making a drop below $85 before the November 3 midterms highly improbable and anchoring over 96% of market-implied probability on the oil ≥ $85 scenarios. Democratic candidates hold leads in key Senate battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Michigan, and Maine per recent polling averages, supporting the 63.9% weighting on Democratic Senate control paired with sustained high oil prices. Traders price the narrow Republican Senate path at 32.6% under the same oil condition, reflecting base-rate advantages for the party defending fewer competitive seats amid generic ballot trends favoring Democrats.