Recent polling averages place Democratic challenger Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting Senate contest, keeping the race a toss-up with Election Day one week away. Peltola’s stronger fundraising and name recognition from prior House campaigns contrast with Sullivan’s established record, while minor candidates on the ballot and the ranked-choice tabulation process add uncertainty to final margins. A recent debate, legal action over duplicate surnames, and Peltola’s minor car crash have drawn attention but not shifted the fundamentals. Trader pricing on margins reflects this tight positioning, where small changes in turnout among key voter groups or late shifts in second-choice preferences could determine whether the winner’s edge stays under 6 points or widens.