Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais faces Democrat Victoria Broderick in the redrawn TN-04, where May 2026 map changes added portions of Davidson County and narrowed the district's partisan lean to roughly R+22. DesJarlais secured his August primary with two-thirds of the vote and holds a substantial fundraising edge, while Broderick won her primary in a rematch from 2024. Forecasts project a Republican margin near 19 points based on fundamentals and similar-race data, with no public polling available three weeks before the November 3 general election. Trader consensus on specific Republican victory buckets between 5 and 35 points reflects uncertainty over national environment effects, turnout in the newly included urban areas, and the limited visibility into late-cycle shifts that could compress or expand the final margin.