Israel’s October 27, 2026, election produced a fragmented Knesset with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar-centered opposition bloc at 48 seats, and Arab-led parties holding a record 19 seats. Neither major bloc reached the 61-seat majority needed for a stable coalition, and most Jewish parties have reiterated red lines against partnering with Arab lists. President Isaac Herzog is expected to grant Eisenkot the first mandate following his 67 recommendations in consultations, yet forming a government requires bridging gaps on issues such as military conscription, judicial matters, and national service. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to “Other” or no government forming, reflecting the procedural timeline of 28-day (extendable) attempts and the risk of dissolution if negotiations fail.