Israel’s October 27, 2026 election produced a fragmented 26th Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc holding 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc at 48 seats, and Arab-led lists securing a record 19. Neither major grouping reached the 61-seat threshold required for a majority coalition. President Isaac Herzog’s ongoing consultations have shown Eisenkot receiving more recommendations, including from Ra’am and the Joint List, while United Torah Judaism declined to back any candidate. Traders price the largest probability on coalitions below 58 seats because most viable combinations exclude Arab parties or require narrow, unstable arrangements that fall short of or barely meet a majority. Broader outcomes above 64 seats would require cross-bloc unity deals or wider Arab inclusion that face significant procedural and political barriers before the new Knesset convenes on November 10.