IBM's upcoming Q3 2026 earnings, due after the close on October 21, carry an 82% market-implied probability of beating consensus estimates of $2.87 per share and $16.84 billion in revenue. This reflects traders' assessment of the company's consistent history of meeting or exceeding normalized EPS targets in recent quarters, supported by steady software and hybrid cloud demand amid AI infrastructure partnerships. Revenue growth expectations remain modest at around 3% year-over-year, with some deal timing risks noted after Q2 shortfalls, yet forward estimates have held relatively stable. Key near-term focus centers on whether AI-related bookings and consulting momentum can deliver the anticipated upside, as the stock trades near 20 times forward earnings amid broader sector volatility.