ExxonMobil’s Q3 2026 upstream production faces offsetting pressures from its advantaged assets and regional disruptions. Record Permian output above 1.8 million boepd and ongoing Guyana ramp—supported by the fifth FPSO startup—continue to drive volume growth toward the company’s 4.7 million boepd full-year target, though Q3 Guyana net entitlement volumes are expected to decline about 100 kboed. Potential full-quarter closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cut Middle East output by roughly 750 kboed versus 2025 levels, while scheduled maintenance remains lighter than Q2. Traders are monitoring these variables ahead of the late-October earnings release, where actual kboed figures will determine resolution. Elevated crude prices above $90 per barrel support cash flow but do not directly alter reported volumes.