**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, shows a maximum of 11–12 °C for Helsinki on 15 October under southerly flow and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime warming.** This mild setup, several degrees above the 1991–2020 mid-October average high near 9 °C, has produced the current market distribution with 11 °C at 56.5 % and 12 °C at 31.5 %. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread in the afternoon maximum, while light southerly winds and high humidity further constrain any upside potential. Official observations from Helsinki-area stations (e.g., Kaisaniemi or Vantaa) will resolve the market once the day ends.