Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability that no direct China-Taiwan military clash will occur before 2027 because Beijing continues to favor sustained grey-zone pressure—routine coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, daily air and naval activity, and periodic live-fire drills—over kinetic operations that would risk direct U.S. intervention and severe economic costs. Recent examples include October 2026 coastal artillery exercises announced after President Lai Ching-te’s National Day remarks, which remained well away from Taiwan and drew only standard monitoring by Taipei. A September 2026 Xi-Trump summit produced an extended trade truce and explicit risk-reduction language, reinforcing the pattern of managed competition. While aerial incursions have fluctuated and maritime presence has grown, full-scale war games have not resumed since late 2025. A sudden miscalculation during patrols, leadership shifts, or unforeseen external shock could still raise the risk of escalation.