Cheng Chao-fang, the DPP nominee and Zhubei mayor, holds the leading trader consensus at 65% amid a two-candidate contest against KMT legislator Hsu Hsin-ying at 36%, with other registered candidates including independent Chu Ting-yu and low-probability options trailing far behind. Recent polling shifts and an AI voter simulation have shown Cheng gaining ground, particularly in Zhubei and among younger or educated voters, after earlier surveys favored Hsu. Cheng’s nomination in June 2026, backed by President Lai Ching-te, and emphasis on local governance results have supported his positioning, while Hsu secured her KMT nomination in March following a divisive primary against Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien. Internal KMT comments in early October highlighted concerns over Hsu’s prospects and the need for greater mobilization. The November 28, 2026, vote remains the resolution trigger, with candidate registration completed and limited third-party coordination noted in the county.