The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and coercive capacity underpin the 76.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2028. Despite large-scale protests triggered by currency collapse and economic hardship in late 2025, followed by U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders in early 2026, security forces maintained control through crackdowns and internet restrictions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and bureaucratic structures have absorbed leadership losses via succession mechanisms, preventing elite defections or coordinated opposition from translating widespread discontent into regime change. U.S. assessments have similarly noted no imminent collapse, with economic decline remaining chronic rather than catalytic absent organized internal alternatives. Recent developments through October 2026 show continued protest activity but no decisive shift in power dynamics.