Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, including tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day in Q4 2026 per EIA estimates, have embedded a significant risk premium in WTI prices near $100 per barrel as of late October. This has offset softer global demand forecasts, with the IEA projecting a 2.5 million barrels per day year-over-year decline in Q4 amid elevated product prices and weaker macro conditions. Backwardation in the futures curve reflects near-term tightness, while U.S. inventory draws and OPEC+ output stability add support. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory reports, potential diplomatic progress on Iran-related conflicts, and any shifts in refinery runs or U.S. production levels that could influence November settlement dynamics.