The Trump administration's public statements and diplomatic actions have reinforced trader expectations against formal US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by December 31, 2026. President Trump has described Pahlavi as "very nice" while questioning his domestic support inside Iran and indicating a preference for internal Iranian figures or other candidates, with no direct endorsement issued. Recent US policy has centered on joint statements denouncing the Islamic Republic, countering its activities in the Western Hemisphere, and military strikes that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet these steps stopped short of designating any exile figure with executive authority. Fragmented opposition dynamics and the absence of a qualifying official statement have kept implied probabilities for "Yes" near 3%. A regime collapse followed by verifiable internal Iranian backing for Pahlavi, or an explicit Trump administration announcement before year-end, remain the primary paths that could alter the current consensus.