Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar holds a narrow edge in the redrawn TX-28 district against Republican Tano Tijerina, with the race rated Lean Democratic by forecasters. Mid-decade redistricting shifted lines toward areas Trump carried in 2024, narrowing the Democratic base while boosting Republican turnout potential. August polling showed Cuellar at 45% to Tijerina’s 34%, reflecting Cuellar’s fundraising lead and name recognition that offset the map changes. Trader consensus prices the contest near even odds because the district’s altered partisan balance creates volatility in a low-turnout midterm environment. Early voting beginning October 19 and any late shifts in Latino voter preferences or third-party Green candidate performance could widen margins in either direction before November 3.