Tesla’s upcoming Q3 2026 earnings, due after the close on October 21, carry a market-implied 68% chance of an EPS beat amid mixed recent results. The primary driver is the company’s October 2 delivery report of 486,532 vehicles, which cleared analyst consensus by roughly 5% and lifted shares about 5% intraday, supporting revenue expectations near the $26–28 billion range. Offsetting this, Q2 EPS missed sharply at $0.33 versus a $0.50 consensus amid elevated capex and margin pressure, prompting analysts to trim forward estimates. Traders are therefore pricing in a modest beat probability on the back of volume strength while remaining cautious on profitability metrics and the stock’s premium valuation ahead of the release.