Traders pricing "No" at 77.5% reflect the CFTC's October 9 proposed rules classifying most event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing federal exchange oversight rather than state gambling statutes. Recent NFL-driven volume surges on Kalshi and Polymarket have highlighted the platforms' exchange structure, which avoids direct wagering mechanics and supports capital-gains or derivative treatment over ordinary-income gambling rules. A circuit split and New Jersey's Supreme Court petition introduce uncertainty, yet the agency's interim actions and lack of finalized IRS guidance on wagering classification keep the consensus tilted against immediate reclassification. Ongoing state challenges and tax-revenue concerns from traditional sportsbooks add pressure, but the regulatory trajectory favors continued separation from gambling tax treatment.