The UK Autumn Budget, scheduled for 28 October 2026, arrives amid elevated inflation driven by Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has lifted government borrowing costs by roughly 50 basis points since March and tightened fiscal headroom. Chancellor John Healey’s first fiscal statement follows the October 1 removal of VAT from household electricity bills, which trims the Ofgem price cap by about £45 annually, while the Office for Budget Responsibility prepares updated forecasts incorporating weaker growth and higher debt-service costs. Traders are focused on whether the Chancellor will preserve the 25% corporation-tax rate, adjust capital-gains or bank levies, expand the “Your First Home” equity-loan scheme, or signal a slower path to the 3% of GDP defence-spending target. Recent Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis underscores the tension between inherited spending plans and new pressures on public services, with any deviation from fiscal rules likely to influence gilt yields and sterling.