New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push for a 2% personal income tax surcharge on residents earning above $1 million faces firm resistance from Governor Kathy Hochul and requires Albany approval that has not materialized. State lawmakers instead advanced a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes and secured additional state aid, allowing the city to close its budget gap without the millionaire levy. Recent Wall Street profit surges have further eased near-term fiscal pressure, reducing urgency for the measure before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Traders assign the “No” outcome 97.4% probability because these structural and political barriers have held steady through 2026. A sudden revenue shortfall or shift in gubernatorial stance could still reopen negotiations in the final months.