Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against any federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 due to stalled legislative progress on rate reductions or broad reforms under unified Republican government. Standard long-term rates remain fixed at the 0%/15%/20% structure for 2026 after inflation adjustments, with no reconciliation or floor action scheduled. Exploratory ideas such as inflation indexing of gains or expanded primary-residence exclusions have surfaced in administration discussions ahead of November midterms but face tight timelines, committee bottlenecks, and competing priorities that experts view as prohibitive before year-end. Targeted bills like the More Homes on the Market Act have not advanced. A narrow window in the post-election lame-duck session or unexpected procedural breakthroughs represent the primary remaining pathways that could still shift outcomes before resolution.