**Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on roughly 200 California billionaires with residency set as of January 1, 2026, faces significant headwinds ahead of the November 3 election.** Polls from September and October show support hovering between 45% and 52%, often narrowly trailing or tied amid high uncertainty. Opponents, led by figures such as Sergey Brin, have spent over $200 million on advertising and two conflicting ballot measures (Propositions 41 and 42) that would nullify Prop 40 even if it receives a majority, under California's rule that the measure with more votes prevails in conflicts. Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly opposed the tax and endorsed a blocking measure, while business groups highlight implementation challenges, potential litigation over retroactive elements, and risks of further wealth migration. These factors—slim polling margins, overwhelming financial opposition, and structural barriers—underpin trader consensus that the tax is unlikely to take effect.