**September US CPI data, due for release today at 8:30 a.m. ET, shows market-implied odds clustered tightly around 3.6% (42.5%) and 3.7% (38.0%) year-over-year.** August’s 3.4% print and 0.4% monthly rise set a base, with economists forecasting a 0.5–0.6% September increase that would lift the annual rate amid elevated energy prices and a 0.3-point jump in one-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.9%. Core measures are expected to hold near 2.4%, while the report serves as the final major inflation input before the late-October FOMC meeting, where futures price an 83% chance of no hike. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over the persistence of recent monthly gains versus potential moderation in non-energy components.