Recent forecasts from meteorological models for Chengdu on October 13, 2026, converge on a daily low of 18°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds and minimal overnight cooling, aligning with the market's 95% implied probability for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects current observational data showing stable autumn temperatures in the Sichuan basin, where typical October lows hover near 15–18°C absent strong cold fronts or clear-sky radiative cooling. Key variables that could shift the recorded minimum include updated model runs incorporating unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts, or minor discrepancies in official station measurements at resolution time. Traders appear to weigh these low-probability deviations against the strong consensus in near-term guidance.