Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Chengdu's October 15 overnight low will likely settle near 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and scattered light rain or drizzle, with high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Recent runs show consistency in this range, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind strength could nudge the minimum by 1–2°C either way. Historical October baselines for the city average around 15–17°C, but the current pattern lacks the stronger cold-air intrusions seen later in the week. Market-implied odds near 50% for sub-14°C or 24°C-plus outcomes, alongside evenly distributed probabilities across 15–23°C, reflect traders weighing model uncertainty and official station measurement criteria ahead of the next forecast updates.