**Current forecast models from sources like WeatherBug and regional Chinese meteorological services project overnight lows for Chengdu on October 14 near 17–19°C (roughly 63–66°F), with daytime highs in the mid-20s°C under partly to mostly cloudy conditions and light northerly or variable winds.** This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–20°C, as traders weigh typical autumn basin meteorology—high humidity, limited radiational cooling under cloud cover, and modest advection from northerly flows—against historical October minima near 15°C. The standout 41% on 15°C or below captures model spread and the possibility of clearer skies or a modest cold surge enhancing nocturnal cooling, while near-zero odds above 25°C align with the absence of warm advection signals. New observational data and updated model runs on the evening of October 13 will likely narrow these ranges ahead of resolution.