**Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models place Chengdu's October 16 minimum near 17–19 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, producing the market's balanced 50 % odds on the 14 °C-or-below and 24 °C-or-higher tails.** Sichuan Basin topography and high humidity limit diurnal swings, while variable low-level cloud cover and possible light rain can suppress overnight radiative cooling or maintain milder readings. Recent early-autumn onset has kept regional temperatures close to or slightly above the 15–16 °C October climatological low, yet model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering flow leaves room for either cooler or warmer extremes by resolution time. Updated runs on the 15th will refine the final distribution.