Forecast models for Ankara on October 15 project a daily minimum near 11–13°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered showers driven by a weak northerly flow and elevated dew points near 11°C. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared to clear-sky baselines typical for mid-October at the city's 900 m elevation. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from variations in shower timing and boundary-layer wind speeds, which could allow brief clear periods for further temperature drops toward 10°C or hold readings above that threshold. Trader consensus around the 10°C and sub-7°C outcomes reflects this narrow but non-negligible range of outcomes ahead of updated model runs.