Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Ankara’s overnight minimum on October 14 will likely fall in the 11–13°C range, shaped by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling under autumn high-pressure influence. These conditions follow a mild early-October period and align with climatological norms near 10–12°C for mid-month, though model spread in timing of any clearing could allow brief dips toward single digits or hold lows higher. Traders have assigned the strongest implied probability to 8°C or below, reflecting uncertainty in the precise nocturnal boundary layer evolution ahead of the final observational window.