As sitting president, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84, which bars criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or foreign aggression, keeping his suspended trials on hold pending individual court decisions. Recent Ministry of Justice fact-finding reviews found no serious illegality in key investigations, including the Wirye development case, reducing momentum for renewed action. Traders price the 95% "No" outcome on this institutional protection and absence of fresh indictments or political shifts that could trigger arrest before 2027. Unlikely but possible catalysts include successful impeachment, voluntary resignation, or abrupt reversal of committee recommendations on remaining cases such as the Ssangbangwool remittance.