Recent back-to-back Bank of Korea rate hikes to 3.00% in July and August, combined with September consumer price inflation easing to 2.9% year-over-year while core measures held near 2.8%, underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 22 meeting. The central bank has signaled it will closely monitor inflation persistence above the 2% target, robust semiconductor-driven growth now projected at 3.3% for 2026, and financial stability risks before determining the timing of any further tightening. This data-dependent pause allows assessment of prior policy effects amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and improving domestic demand. A significantly hotter-than-expected October CPI release or accelerated household borrowing could still shift the near-term path toward additional hikes.