The near-certain trader consensus against a North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027 stems from Pyongyang's pattern of missile testing and border fortification rather than offensive mobilization. Recent weeks have featured multiple North Korean ballistic missile launches, including several on October 12 following Seoul's hypersonic test, plus a September landmine incident in the DMZ that wounded South Korean soldiers and prompted mutual accusations and warnings. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has prioritized sealing the border, advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and issuing two-state declarations over conventional war preparations, while South Korea under President Lee Jae-myung balances military modernization with calls for phased dialogue. Strong U.S. alliance commitments and North Korea's economic constraints further deter full-scale action. Low-probability shifts could arise from border miscalculations or abrupt changes in U.S. diplomacy.