US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while halting operations and leaving the IAEA without access to verify the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. US intelligence assessments and analyses from groups such as the Institute for Science and International Security indicate that, absent a decision to weaponize, Iran would require about a year or more to reconstitute cascades, resume enrichment to weapons-grade levels, and complete assembly steps. Iran has not restarted enrichment or shown evidence of such a decision, consistent with its reaffirmations in diplomatic channels. This extended timeline underpins trader consensus on the low probability of acquisition before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from undetected recovery of surviving material in tunnels, accelerated reconstruction, or a rapid policy reversal amid heightened regional tensions.