Recent polling averages show Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by roughly 6-8 points in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election, though individual surveys range from near ties to double-digit Republican advantages. Florida’s Republican-leaning electorate, Moody’s established name recognition as attorney general and appointed senator, and the state’s 2024 presidential results provide structural support for her position. Nixon’s strength among younger voters, women, and in Southeast Florida, combined with 5-10% undecideds and turnout variability in a special election, keeps the contest competitive. Late-campaign events such as additional polling releases, debate performances, or shifts in independent support could narrow or widen the final margin before Election Day.