Recent earnings results and post-spin-off adjustments are shaping the 73.5% market-implied probability that FedEx will not beat quarterly estimates. Following the June 2026 separation of FedEx Freight, the company delivered strong fiscal Q4 results with adjusted EPS of $6.31 versus consensus near $5.91 and revenue of $25.0 billion, extending a streak of beats supported by premium B2B volume growth, transformation savings exceeding $1 billion, and international momentum. However, calendar 2026 guidance of $16.90–$18.10 adjusted EPS incorporates headwinds from the new pilot contract effective late June, lingering global trade pressures, and the shift to a December fiscal year-end, which has led traders to price in a more challenging setup for the October 28 release with consensus EPS near $3.31–$4.05.