Trader consensus on no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's primary concentration in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo provinces, where over 8,700 confirmed cases and 4,200 deaths have been recorded as of early October with a case fatality ratio near 48%. Despite rapid early growth and WHO assessment of very high risk within DRC plus high risk for immediate neighbors, global risk remains low due to limited sustained transmission beyond imported cases in Uganda, Kenya, and France. Effective surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation have prevented the widespread community chains seen in true pandemics. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected exportations sparking secondary outbreaks in additional countries or changes in viral transmissibility.