Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cold front will shift winds from southerly to northerly across north Texas by October 15-16, promoting cooler advection and lowering overnight minima from the current mid-70s. Ensemble consensus places the October 15 low near 65°F, supporting the market's leading 63°F-or-below outcome at 50% implied probability while leaving room for 64-67°F bins near 33%. Key uncertainties include exact frontal timing and cloud cover, which could limit radiational cooling; drier air behind the front favors clearer skies and greater overnight drops. Updated NWS and global model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.