Official observations from the National Weather Service Fort Worth station recorded a minimum temperature of 77°F on October 13, 2026, at 4:34 AM local time, with a daily maximum of 95°F under southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This verified low aligns directly with the market’s dominant 78-79°F outcome at 95.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time surface data rather than model projections. Historical October norms for Dallas average a low near 59°F, underscoring how unusually warm conditions—driven by persistent southerly advection—produced the elevated minimum. Resolution hinges on the precise official station reading, so minor discrepancies in rounding, station choice, or post-analysis adjustments remain the primary realistic variables that could shift final settlement.