Katie Hobbs holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Arizona governor race due to her consistent polling leads as the Democratic incumbent, a substantial fundraising and advertising edge, and her prior statewide victory in 2022. Recent surveys from August through early October show her ahead of Republican nominee Andy Biggs by margins ranging from statistical ties to double digits, with polling averages around 6–8 points. Biggs, a sitting congressman endorsed by former President Trump, has emphasized ground-game efforts targeting ticket-splitters and criticized Hobbs for declining debates, including one held in early October. Forecasters rate the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, while prediction markets align closely with the current trader consensus ahead of the November 3 election.