Eli Crane holds a clear edge in the AZ-02 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, his status as incumbent, and a consistent polling lead over Jonathan Nez. The large rural district favors Republicans by double digits in voter registration, and Crane defeated Nez by nine points in 2024. Recent summer polls showed Crane ahead by two to eleven points, aligning with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Likely Republican. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, has narrowed the gap among independents and highlighted rural concerns such as water security and living costs, yet he trails in overall support and fundraising. With the November 3 election approaching, limited new polling leaves the trader consensus reflecting the district’s structural Republican advantage and Crane’s established position.