Kris Mayes holds a substantial edge in trader pricing for the November 3, 2026 Arizona attorney general race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term against Republican state Senate President Warren Petersen. Recent polling averages show a tight contest, with surveys from Equis Research and Grayhouse placing the candidates within a few points or tied among likely voters, consistent with Mayes’s narrow 2022 victory by 280 votes. Petersen secured the GOP nomination in the July primary by defeating Rodney Glassman, but the race remains competitive amid ongoing early voting that began October 7. Market odds reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing Mayes’s incumbency advantage and Arizona’s recent partisan patterns in statewide contests, while leaving room for shifts from turnout, late developments, or ballot dynamics before Election Day.