Recent polling in mid-October 2026 shows Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs holding double-digit or solid leads over Republican challenger Andy Biggs statewide, with independents breaking heavily for Hobbs and some erosion in Republican base support. Maricopa County, home to roughly 63% of Arizona voters, has historically tracked these broader trends closely. HighGround and other surveys highlight Hobbs’s advantages among moderates, suburban voters, and certain demographics that performed better for Republicans in 2024, while Biggs faces questions about consolidating his party. With early voting underway and Election Day on November 3, traders appear to view Hobbs as the clear favorite to carry the county based on current momentum and voter patterns.